Predicted Bracket
The model's path to the trophy: predicted group finishers fill the Round of 32, then the side with the higher title chance is tipped to advance each round — so the champion here matches the model's pick to lift the trophy (% = head-to-head win chance). Updates to the real teams and winners as results come in.
Round of 32
Germany
Korea Republic
67%
France
Paraguay
76%
Czechia
Canada
64%
Netherlands
Morocco
50%
Colombia
Croatia
63%
Spain
Austria
87%
Turkey
Senegal
50%
Belgium
Côte d'Ivoire
71%
Brazil
Japan
61%
Ecuador
Norway
58%
Mexico
Scotland
69%
England
Uzbekistan
81%
Argentina
Uruguay
77%
USA
Iran
61%
Switzerland
Algeria
60%
Portugal
Panama
75%
Round of 16
Germany
France
67%
Canada
Morocco
62%
Colombia
Spain
71%
Senegal
Belgium
56%
Brazil
Ecuador
56%
Mexico
England
65%
Argentina
Iran
84%
Switzerland
Portugal
62%
Quarter-finals
France
Morocco
69%
Spain
Belgium
82%
Brazil
England
50%
Argentina
Portugal
70%
Semi-finals
France
Spain
63%
Brazil
Argentina
67%
Final
Spain
Argentina
50%
Champion
Group order: expected points from the ensemble (real standings once a group finishes). Knockout: the higher title-probability side advances (Elo breaks ties), replaced by the real winner once played.