Fixtures & Predictions
Model win/draw/loss probabilities (stacked ensemble) and the Dixon-Coles most-likely scoreline & expected goals for every fixture.
Group A ★ Mexico 38%
🇲🇽
Mexico
vs
South Africa
🇿🇦
70% Mexico
20% Draw
9% South Africa
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.74–0.65
Mexico
1.431.42
Draw
4.504.90
South Afr…
9.1010.78
Marketvs Model fair
🇰🇷
Korea Republic
vs
Czechia
🇨🇿
37% Korea Repub…
32% Draw
31% Czechia
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.22–1.25
Korea Rep…
2.672.71
Draw
3.163.16
Czechia
2.933.18
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇿
Czechia
vs
South Africa
🇿🇦
53% Czechia
29% Draw
18% South Africa
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.43–0.83
Czechia
2.001.89
Draw
3.303.49
South Afr…
4.105.42
Marketvs Model fair
🇲🇽
Mexico
vs
Korea Republic
🇰🇷
57% Mexico
26% Draw
17% Korea Repub…
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.52–0.95
Mexico
1.801.76
Draw
3.503.84
Korea Rep…
4.805.79
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇿
Czechia
vs
Mexico
🇲🇽
25% Czechia
30% Draw
45% Mexico
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.03–1.27
Czechia
3.703.94
Draw
3.153.37
Mexico
1.662.22
Marketvs Model fair
🇿🇦
South Africa
vs
Korea Republic
🇰🇷
20% South Africa
28% Draw
52% Korea Repub…
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.79–1.33
South Afr…
3.305.10
Draw
3.053.54
Korea Rep…
1.801.92
Marketvs Model fair
Group B ★ Switzerland 64%
🇨🇦
Canada
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
🇧🇦
68% Canada
22% Draw
11% Bosnia and …
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.66–0.73
Canada
1.781.48
Draw
3.704.65
Bosnia an…
4.909.12
Marketvs Model fair
🇶🇦
Qatar
vs
Switzerland
🇨🇭
7% Qatar
15% Draw
79% Switzerland
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.67–2.82
Qatar
14.0014.90
Draw
6.256.80
Switzerla…
1.231.27
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇭
Switzerland
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
🇧🇦
71% Switzerland
19% Draw
10% Bosnia and …
Likely score 2-0
· xG 1.98–0.68
Switzerla…
1.571.41
Draw
3.905.17
Bosnia an…
6.1010.48
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇦
Canada
vs
Qatar
🇶🇦
78% Canada
15% Draw
7% Qatar
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.36–0.71
Canada
1.261.29
Draw
4.906.54
Qatar
8.5014.31
Marketvs Model fair
🇧🇦
Bosnia and Herzegovina
vs
Qatar
🇶🇦
46% Bosnia and …
30% Draw
24% Qatar
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.45–1.00
Bosnia an…
1.502.18
Draw
4.003.28
Qatar
6.204.24
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇭
Switzerland
vs
Canada
🇨🇦
48% Switzerland
30% Draw
22% Canada
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.41–0.88
Switzerla…
2.052.07
Draw
3.203.39
Canada
3.504.52
Marketvs Model fair
Group C ★ Brazil 62%
🇧🇷
Brazil
vs
Morocco
🇲🇦
46% Brazil
31% Draw
23% Morocco
Likely score 0-0
· xG 1.07–0.79
Brazil
1.682.16
Draw
3.803.23
Morocco
5.754.38
Marketvs Model fair
🇭🇹
Haiti
vs
Scotland
🏴
11% Haiti
21% Draw
68% Scotland
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.81–2.21
Haiti
6.359.21
Draw
4.454.68
Scotland
1.541.48
Marketvs Model fair
🏴
Scotland
vs
Morocco
🇲🇦
17% Scotland
31% Draw
52% Morocco
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.61–1.24
Scotland
3.655.82
Draw
3.153.23
Morocco
1.901.93
Marketvs Model fair
🇧🇷
Brazil
vs
Haiti
🇭🇹
88% Brazil
8% Draw
4% Haiti
Likely score 3-0
· xG 3.89–0.51
Brazil
1.061.13
Draw
13.0012.97
Haiti
35.0025.34
Marketvs Model fair
🏴
Scotland
vs
Brazil
🇧🇷
10% Scotland
21% Draw
69% Brazil
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.76–2.11
Scotland
6.5010.31
Draw
4.704.78
Brazil
1.451.44
Marketvs Model fair
🇲🇦
Morocco
vs
Haiti
🇭🇹
80% Morocco
13% Draw
7% Haiti
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.29–0.41
Morocco
1.301.25
Draw
5.007.44
Haiti
8.5015.30
Marketvs Model fair
Group D ★ Turkey 32%
🇺🇸
USA
vs
Paraguay
🇵🇾
43% USA
29% Draw
28% Paraguay
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.21–1.09
USA
2.012.30
Draw
3.523.45
Paraguay
4.003.63
Marketvs Model fair
🇦🇺
Australia
vs
Turkey
🇹🇷
31% Australia
30% Draw
39% Turkey
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.17–1.23
Australia
5.003.18
Draw
3.853.35
Turkey
1.752.58
Marketvs Model fair
🇺🇸
USA
vs
Australia
🇦🇺
44% USA
28% Draw
28% Australia
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.26–1.20
USA
1.762.29
Draw
4.003.58
Australia
4.503.53
Marketvs Model fair
🇹🇷
Turkey
vs
Paraguay
🇵🇾
38% Turkey
32% Draw
30% Paraguay
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.18–1.06
Turkey
2.252.65
Draw
3.303.09
Paraguay
3.503.34
Marketvs Model fair
🇵🇾
Paraguay
vs
Australia
🇦🇺
34% Paraguay
34% Draw
32% Australia
Likely score 0-0
· xG 0.85–0.90
Paraguay
2.002.93
Draw
3.052.98
Australia
3.103.10
Marketvs Model fair
🇹🇷
Turkey
vs
USA
🇺🇸
40% Turkey
33% Draw
28% USA
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.58–1.24
Turkey
2.402.52
Draw
3.103.06
USA
2.253.62
Marketvs Model fair
Group E ★ Germany 55%
🇩🇪
Germany
vs
Curaçao
🇨🇼
88% Germany
8% Draw
4% Curaçao
Likely score 4-0
· xG 4.04–0.47
Germany
1.051.13
Draw
16.5012.90
Curaçao
56.0026.02
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇮
Côte d'Ivoire
vs
Ecuador
🇪🇨
22% Côte d'Ivoi…
33% Draw
45% Ecuador
Likely score 0-0
· xG 0.59–0.94
Côte d'Iv…
3.654.57
Draw
2.823.04
Ecuador
2.472.21
Marketvs Model fair
🇩🇪
Germany
vs
Côte d'Ivoire
🇨🇮
61% Germany
24% Draw
15% Côte d'Ivoi…
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.64–0.84
Germany
1.571.65
Draw
4.104.08
Côte d'Iv…
5.806.75
Marketvs Model fair
🇪🇨
Ecuador
vs
Curaçao
🇨🇼
82% Ecuador
12% Draw
5% Curaçao
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.31–0.33
Ecuador
1.161.21
Draw
6.508.13
Curaçao
10.0018.75
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇼
Curaçao
vs
Côte d'Ivoire
🇨🇮
8% Curaçao
19% Draw
73% Côte d'Ivoi…
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.47–2.08
Curaçao
8.0012.86
Draw
5.005.18
Côte d'Iv…
1.161.37
Marketvs Model fair
🇪🇨
Ecuador
vs
Germany
🇩🇪
29% Ecuador
33% Draw
39% Germany
Likely score 1-1
· xG 0.93–1.14
Ecuador
4.103.48
Draw
3.403.07
Germany
1.542.59
Marketvs Model fair
Group F ★ Netherlands 48%
🇳🇱
Netherlands
vs
Japan
🇯🇵
41% Netherlands
31% Draw
28% Japan
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.32–1.09
Netherlan…
1.992.46
Draw
3.683.24
Japan
3.883.52
Marketvs Model fair
🇸🇪
Sweden
vs
Tunisia
🇹🇳
45% Sweden
30% Draw
25% Tunisia
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.27–0.98
Sweden
1.932.22
Draw
3.523.33
Tunisia
4.354.01
Marketvs Model fair
🇳🇱
Netherlands
vs
Sweden
🇸🇪
62% Netherlands
23% Draw
15% Sweden
Likely score 1-1
· xG 2.08–1.06
Netherlan…
1.651.62
Draw
3.954.33
Sweden
5.306.62
Marketvs Model fair
🇹🇳
Tunisia
vs
Japan
🇯🇵
16% Tunisia
28% Draw
56% Japan
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.62–1.30
Tunisia
5.106.19
Draw
3.603.56
Japan
1.741.79
Marketvs Model fair
🇯🇵
Japan
vs
Sweden
🇸🇪
55% Japan
27% Draw
18% Sweden
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.60–0.99
Japan
1.941.81
Draw
3.153.75
Sweden
3.155.56
Marketvs Model fair
🇹🇳
Tunisia
vs
Netherlands
🇳🇱
13% Tunisia
23% Draw
64% Netherlands
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.66–1.69
Tunisia
5.007.49
Draw
3.704.33
Netherlan…
1.391.57
Marketvs Model fair
Group G ★ Belgium 62%
🇧🇪
Belgium
vs
Egypt
🇪🇬
59% Belgium
25% Draw
15% Egypt
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.48–0.68
Belgium
1.691.68
Draw
3.903.96
Egypt
5.456.52
Marketvs Model fair
🇮🇷
Iran
vs
New Zealand
🇳🇿
66% Iran
23% Draw
12% New Zealand
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.52–0.52
Iran
1.911.52
Draw
3.474.43
New Zeala…
4.478.46
Marketvs Model fair
🇧🇪
Belgium
vs
Iran
🇮🇷
56% Belgium
25% Draw
19% Iran
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.61–0.89
Belgium
1.371.78
Draw
4.593.98
Iran
7.655.32
Marketvs Model fair
🇳🇿
New Zealand
vs
Egypt
🇪🇬
16% New Zealand
32% Draw
52% Egypt
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.48–1.17
New Zeala…
5.206.16
Draw
3.603.16
Egypt
1.721.92
Marketvs Model fair
🇳🇿
New Zealand
vs
Belgium
🇧🇪
6% New Zealand
17% Draw
76% Belgium
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.43–2.27
New Zeala…
10.0215.69
Draw
5.585.78
Belgium
1.301.31
Marketvs Model fair
🇪🇬
Egypt
vs
Iran
🇮🇷
30% Egypt
32% Draw
38% Iran
Likely score 0-0
· xG 0.83–0.99
Egypt
2.383.34
Draw
3.083.09
Iran
3.622.66
Marketvs Model fair
Group H ★ Spain 76%
🇪🇸
Spain
vs
Cape Verde
🇨🇻
85% Spain
11% Draw
4% Cape Verde
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.91–0.41
Spain
1.111.18
Draw
11.009.41
Cape Verde
27.0022.42
Marketvs Model fair
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
vs
Uruguay
🇺🇾
11% Saudi Arabia
24% Draw
65% Uruguay
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.45–1.47
Saudi Ara…
8.409.05
Draw
4.554.11
Uruguay
1.441.55
Marketvs Model fair
🇪🇸
Spain
vs
Saudi Arabia
🇸🇦
83% Spain
12% Draw
5% Saudi Arabia
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.64–0.41
Spain
1.091.21
Draw
10.608.12
Saudi Ara…
30.0020.00
Marketvs Model fair
🇺🇾
Uruguay
vs
Cape Verde
🇨🇻
74% Uruguay
18% Draw
8% Cape Verde
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.62–0.45
Uruguay
1.451.36
Draw
4.355.46
Cape Verde
7.5012.31
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇻
Cape Verde
vs
Saudi Arabia
🇸🇦
31% Cape Verde
33% Draw
36% Saudi Arabia
Likely score 0-0
· xG 0.87–0.96
Cape Verde
2.553.27
Draw
3.103.00
Saudi Ara…
2.702.76
Marketvs Model fair
🇺🇾
Uruguay
vs
Spain
🇪🇸
19% Uruguay
27% Draw
54% Spain
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.70–1.36
Uruguay
5.305.20
Draw
3.803.73
Spain
1.571.85
Marketvs Model fair
Group I ★ France 54%
🇫🇷
France
vs
Senegal
🇸🇳
55% France
28% Draw
16% Senegal
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.47–0.83
France
1.491.81
Draw
4.403.54
Senegal
7.506.08
Marketvs Model fair
🇮🇶
Iraq
vs
Norway
🇳🇴
12% Iraq
22% Draw
66% Norway
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.59–1.83
Iraq
15.008.36
Draw
6.754.62
Norway
1.231.51
Marketvs Model fair
🇫🇷
France
vs
Iraq
🇮🇶
77% France
16% Draw
7% Iraq
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.12–0.45
France
1.131.30
Draw
8.506.24
Iraq
21.0014.13
Marketvs Model fair
🇳🇴
Norway
vs
Senegal
🇸🇳
38% Norway
33% Draw
29% Senegal
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.27–1.08
Norway
2.172.64
Draw
3.503.02
Senegal
3.453.45
Marketvs Model fair
🇳🇴
Norway
vs
France
🇫🇷
21% Norway
29% Draw
51% France
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.06–1.59
Norway
4.394.87
Draw
3.663.50
France
1.781.96
Marketvs Model fair
🇸🇳
Senegal
vs
Iraq
🇮🇶
62% Senegal
25% Draw
13% Iraq
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.43–0.55
Senegal
1.531.61
Draw
4.314.06
Iraq
6.947.45
Marketvs Model fair
Group J ★ Argentina 70%
🇦🇷
Argentina
vs
Algeria
🇩🇿
70% Argentina
20% Draw
9% Algeria
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.64–0.57
Argentina
1.421.42
Draw
4.554.96
Algeria
9.3010.55
Marketvs Model fair
🇦🇹
Austria
vs
Jordan
🇯🇴
70% Austria
19% Draw
12% Jordan
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.00–0.72
Austria
1.301.43
Draw
5.805.38
Jordan
10.008.57
Marketvs Model fair
🇦🇷
Argentina
vs
Austria
🇦🇹
66% Argentina
23% Draw
11% Austria
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.43–0.57
Argentina
1.661.51
Draw
3.904.43
Austria
5.208.92
Marketvs Model fair
🇯🇴
Jordan
vs
Algeria
🇩🇿
12% Jordan
25% Draw
64% Algeria
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.83–2.01
Jordan
6.408.45
Draw
4.254.08
Algeria
1.551.57
Marketvs Model fair
🇩🇿
Algeria
vs
Austria
🇦🇹
31% Algeria
31% Draw
38% Austria
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.07–1.22
Algeria
2.903.18
Draw
2.903.24
Austria
2.002.65
Marketvs Model fair
🇯🇴
Jordan
vs
Argentina
🇦🇷
5% Jordan
13% Draw
82% Argentina
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.39–2.69
Jordan
14.0020.43
Draw
6.207.58
Argentina
1.171.22
Marketvs Model fair
Group K ★ Portugal 50%
🇵🇹
Portugal
vs
DR Congo
🇨🇩
71% Portugal
20% Draw
10% DR Congo
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.65–0.50
Portugal
1.271.41
Draw
5.805.10
DR Congo
12.0010.51
Marketvs Model fair
🇺🇿
Uzbekistan
vs
Colombia
🇨🇴
11% Uzbekistan
23% Draw
67% Colombia
Likely score 0-1
· xG 0.57–1.72
Uzbekistan
8.909.35
Draw
4.554.41
Colombia
1.431.50
Marketvs Model fair
🇵🇹
Portugal
vs
Uzbekistan
🇺🇿
71% Portugal
19% Draw
10% Uzbekistan
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.87–0.54
Portugal
1.211.40
Draw
5.605.30
Uzbekistan
8.5010.19
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇴
Colombia
vs
DR Congo
🇨🇩
71% Colombia
19% Draw
9% DR Congo
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.52–0.52
Colombia
1.511.40
Draw
4.105.13
DR Congo
7.5010.87
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇴
Colombia
vs
Portugal
🇵🇹
33% Colombia
31% Draw
36% Portugal
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.16–1.32
Colombia
3.553.01
Draw
3.303.26
Portugal
2.142.77
Marketvs Model fair
🇨🇩
DR Congo
vs
Uzbekistan
🇺🇿
32% DR Congo
36% Draw
31% Uzbekistan
Likely score 0-0
· xG 0.74–0.71
DR Congo
2.153.08
Draw
3.102.76
Uzbekistan
2.803.19
Marketvs Model fair
Group L ★ England 66%
🏴
England
vs
Croatia
🇭🇷
50% England
30% Draw
20% Croatia
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.33–0.78
England
1.761.99
Draw
3.843.31
Croatia
4.955.09
Marketvs Model fair
🇬🇭
Ghana
vs
Panama
🇵🇦
33% Ghana
29% Draw
37% Panama
Likely score 1-1
· xG 1.20–1.09
Ghana
2.052.99
Draw
3.643.40
Panama
3.722.69
Marketvs Model fair
🏴
England
vs
Ghana
🇬🇭
78% England
15% Draw
7% Ghana
Likely score 2-0
· xG 2.13–0.43
England
1.261.28
Draw
5.106.48
Ghana
7.7515.35
Marketvs Model fair
🇵🇦
Panama
vs
Croatia
🇭🇷
10% Panama
22% Draw
68% Croatia
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.68–2.18
Panama
6.0010.06
Draw
4.004.51
Croatia
1.431.47
Marketvs Model fair
🇭🇷
Croatia
vs
Ghana
🇬🇭
70% Croatia
20% Draw
10% Ghana
Likely score 1-0
· xG 1.84–0.63
Croatia
1.601.43
Draw
3.704.98
Ghana
5.2010.14
Marketvs Model fair
🇵🇦
Panama
vs
England
🏴
6% Panama
16% Draw
78% England
Likely score 0-2
· xG 0.46–2.52
Panama
8.5016.00
Draw
5.506.29
England
1.271.28
Marketvs Model fair
Round of 32
Runner-up Group A
vs
Runner-up Group B
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group C
vs
Runner-up Group F
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group E
vs
3rd Group A/B/C/D/F
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group F
vs
Runner-up Group C
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Runner-up Group E
vs
Runner-up Group I
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group I
vs
3rd Group C/D/F/G/H
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group A
vs
3rd Group C/E/F/H/I
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group L
vs
3rd Group E/H/I/J/K
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group G
vs
3rd Group A/E/H/I/J
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group D
vs
3rd Group B/E/F/I/J
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group H
vs
Runner-up Group J
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Runner-up Group K
vs
Runner-up Group L
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group B
vs
3rd Group E/F/G/I/J
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Runner-up Group D
vs
Runner-up Group G
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group J
vs
Runner-up Group H
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Group K
vs
3rd Group D/E/I/J/L
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Round of 16
Winner Match 73
vs
Winner Match 75
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 74
vs
Winner Match 77
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 76
vs
Winner Match 78
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 79
vs
Winner Match 80
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 83
vs
Winner Match 84
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 81
vs
Winner Match 82
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 86
vs
Winner Match 88
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 85
vs
Winner Match 87
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Quarter-finals
Winner Match 89
vs
Winner Match 90
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 93
vs
Winner Match 94
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 91
vs
Winner Match 92
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 95
vs
Winner Match 96
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Semi-finals
Winner Match 97
vs
Winner Match 98
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Winner Match 99
vs
Winner Match 100
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Third-place play-off
Loser Match 101
vs
Loser Match 102
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.
Final
Winner Match 101
vs
Winner Match 102
Prediction pending — teams TBD or model not yet run.