Tournament Forecast
5000 Monte-Carlo simulations of the whole tournament (Dixon-Coles). It conditions on games already played, so the odds update after every result — eliminated teams fall to 0, qualified teams firm up.
Who wins each group?
Group B
Switzerland
64%
96%
Canada
26%
85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8%
56%
Qatar
3%
26%
win groupadvance
Title race
| # | Team | Win group | Advance | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 70% | 98% | 70% | 57% | 44% | 30% | 19% |
| 2 | Spain | 76% | 99% | 73% | 53% | 41% | 28% | 18% |
| 3 | Brazil | 62% | 99% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 10% |
| 4 | England | 66% | 98% | 71% | 49% | 30% | 17% | 9% |
| 5 | France | 54% | 94% | 69% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 8% |
| 6 | Portugal | 50% | 93% | 68% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 6% |
| 7 | Colombia | 42% | 91% | 63% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% |
| 8 | Belgium | 62% | 95% | 65% | 39% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| 9 | Germany | 55% | 98% | 69% | 36% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 10 | Morocco | 29% | 94% | 54% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% |
| 11 | Netherlands | 48% | 90% | 48% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 12 | Ecuador | 31% | 93% | 58% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 13 | Switzerland | 64% | 96% | 63% | 27% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 14 | Uruguay | 22% | 90% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 15 | Croatia | 30% | 91% | 46% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 16 | Japan | 33% | 83% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 17 | Norway | 26% | 83% | 45% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 18 | Mexico | 38% | 83% | 45% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% |
| 19 | Senegal | 17% | 74% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% |
| 20 | Turkey | 32% | 76% | 39% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 21 | Australia | 26% | 71% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 22 | Austria | 16% | 79% | 29% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 23 | Algeria | 13% | 76% | 26% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 24 | Canada | 26% | 85% | 43% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 25 | Iran | 22% | 80% | 40% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 26 | Paraguay | 22% | 68% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 27 | Scotland | 8% | 71% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 28 | Côte d'Ivoire | 14% | 81% | 32% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 | Korea Republic | 26% | 73% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 30 | USA | 20% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 31 | Sweden | 12% | 55% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 32 | Czechia | 28% | 75% | 30% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 33 | Egypt | 14% | 70% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 34 | DR Congo | 4% | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 35 | Tunisia | 7% | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 36 | Iraq | 2% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 37 | Uzbekistan | 4% | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 38 | South Africa | 8% | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 39 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 8% | 56% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 40 | Qatar | 3% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 41 | Haiti | 0% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 42 | Curaçao | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 43 | New Zealand | 2% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | Cape Verde | 1% | 27% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 45 | Saudi Arabia | 2% | 32% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 46 | Jordan | 1% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 47 | Ghana | 2% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | Panama | 2% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Probabilities from sampled scorelines; group ties broken by points → goal difference → goals → Elo (a fast approximation of the full 2026 tiebreakers). Refreshed as new results come in.