Where the bookies are wrong

For every fixture, we compare the bookmaker's odds to what our model thinks the real chances are. When the model is more confident than the market, that's a value pick: a bet the bookies have under-priced.

⚡ Top value picks Biggest gap between model and market, tournament-wide

+15%

Iran

Iran vs New Zealand

Tue 16 Jun @ 1.91

Market sees 51% Model sees 66%

+13%

Canada

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Sat 13 Jun @ 1.78

Market sees 54% Model sees 68%

+13%

Croatia

Croatia vs Ghana

Sun 28 Jun @ 1.60

Market sees 57% Model sees 70%

+11%

Panama

Ghana vs Panama

Thu 18 Jun @ 3.72

Market sees 26% Model sees 37%

+11%

Switzerland

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Fri 19 Jun @ 1.57

Market sees 60% Model sees 71%

+11%

Iran

Egypt vs Iran

Sat 27 Jun @ 3.62

Market sees 27% Model sees 38%

Every fixture, ranked by value

★ model's pick = the outcome our model thinks is most likely. value = where the bookies are paying more than the model thinks the chance is worth (sometimes the favourite, sometimes not). Both shown side-by-side.

🇮🇷 Iran v New Zealand 🇳🇿

Tue 16 Jun · 11:00 UTC

Iran ★ model's pick

1.91

Market 51% Model 66%

+15.1% edge

Draw

3.47

Market 28% Model 23%

-5.3%

New Zealand

4.47

Market 22% Model 12%

-9.8%

🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦

Sat 13 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Canada ★ model's pick

1.78

Market 54% Model 68%

+13.3% edge

Draw

3.70

Market 26% Model 22%

-4.6%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

4.90

Market 20% Model 11%

-8.7%

🇭🇷 Croatia v Ghana 🇬🇭

Sun 28 Jun · 07:00 UTC

Croatia ★ model's pick

1.60

Market 57% Model 70%

+12.6% edge

Draw

3.70

Market 25% Model 20%

-4.8%

Ghana

5.20

Market 18% Model 10%

-7.8%

🇦🇺 Australia v Turkey 🇹🇷

Sun 14 Jun · 14:00 UTC

Australia value

5.00

Market 19% Model 31%

+12.0% edge

Draw

3.85

Market 25% Model 30%

+4.7% edge

Turkey ★ model's pick

1.75

Market 55% Model 39%

-16.7%

🇬🇭 Ghana v Panama 🇵🇦

Thu 18 Jun · 09:00 UTC

Ghana

2.05

Market 47% Model 33%

-13.8%

Draw

3.64

Market 27% Model 29%

+2.7% edge

Panama ★ model's pick

3.72

Market 26% Model 37%

+11.1% edge

🇨🇭 Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦

Fri 19 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Switzerland ★ model's pick

1.57

Market 60% Model 71%

+10.9% edge

Draw

3.90

Market 24% Model 19%

-4.9%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

6.10

Market 16% Model 10%

-6.0%

🇪🇬 Egypt v Iran 🇮🇷

Sat 27 Jun · 13:00 UTC

Egypt

2.38

Market 41% Model 30%

-11.2%

Draw

3.08

Market 32% Model 32%

+0.6% edge

Iran ★ model's pick

3.62

Market 27% Model 38%

+10.6% edge

🇯🇵 Japan v Sweden 🇸🇪

Fri 26 Jun · 09:00 UTC

Japan ★ model's pick

1.94

Market 45% Model 55%

+10.5% edge

Draw

3.15

Market 28% Model 27%

-0.9%

Sweden

3.15

Market 28% Model 18%

-9.6%

🇲🇦 Morocco v Haiti 🇭🇹

Thu 25 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Morocco ★ model's pick

1.30

Market 71% Model 80%

+9.2% edge

Draw

5.00

Market 18% Model 13%

-5.0%

Haiti

8.50

Market 11% Model 7%

-4.3%

🇦🇷 Argentina v Austria 🇦🇹

Tue 23 Jun · 03:00 UTC

Argentina ★ model's pick

1.66

Market 57% Model 66%

+8.9% edge

Draw

3.90

Market 24% Model 23%

-1.8%

Austria

5.20

Market 18% Model 11%

-7.1%

🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar 🇶🇦

Thu 25 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Bosnia and Herzegovina ★ model's pick

1.50

Market 62% Model 46%

-15.9%

Draw

4.00

Market 23% Model 30%

+7.3% edge

Qatar value

6.20

Market 15% Model 24%

+8.6% edge

🇪🇨 Ecuador v Germany 🇩🇪

Fri 26 Jun · 06:00 UTC

Ecuador value

4.10

Market 21% Model 29%

+8.2% edge

Draw

3.40

Market 25% Model 33%

+7.8% edge

Germany ★ model's pick

1.54

Market 55% Model 39%

-16.0%

🇺🇾 Uruguay v Cape Verde 🇨🇻

Mon 22 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Uruguay ★ model's pick

1.45

Market 66% Model 74%

+8.1% edge

Draw

4.35

Market 22% Model 18%

-3.5%

Cape Verde

7.50

Market 13% Model 8%

-4.5%

🇨🇩 DR Congo v Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

Sun 28 Jun · 09:30 UTC

DR Congo

2.15

Market 41% Model 32%

-8.1%

Draw ★ model's pick

3.10

Market 28% Model 36%

+8.0% edge

Uzbekistan

2.80

Market 31% Model 31%

+0.1% edge

🇨🇴 Colombia v DR Congo 🇨🇩

Wed 24 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Colombia ★ model's pick

1.51

Market 64% Model 71%

+7.6% edge

Draw

4.10

Market 23% Model 19%

-4.0%

DR Congo

7.50

Market 13% Model 9%

-3.6%

🇮🇶 Iraq v Norway 🇳🇴

Wed 17 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Iraq

15.00

Market 6% Model 12%

+5.5% edge

Draw value

6.75

Market 14% Model 22%

+7.2% edge

Norway ★ model's pick

1.23

Market 79% Model 66%

-12.7%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Ghana 🇬🇭

Wed 24 Jun · 06:00 UTC

England ★ model's pick

1.26

Market 71% Model 78%

+7.1% edge

Draw

5.10

Market 18% Model 15%

-2.1%

Ghana

7.75

Market 12% Model 7%

-5.0%

🇺🇸 USA v Australia 🇦🇺

Sat 20 Jun · 05:00 UTC

USA ★ model's pick

1.76

Market 55% Model 44%

-10.9%

Draw

4.00

Market 24% Model 28%

+3.9% edge

Australia value

4.50

Market 21% Model 28%

+7.0% edge

🇧🇪 Belgium v Iran 🇮🇷

Mon 22 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Belgium ★ model's pick

1.37

Market 68% Model 56%

-11.6%

Draw

4.59

Market 20% Model 25%

+4.9% edge

Iran value

7.65

Market 12% Model 19%

+6.7% edge

🇨🇦 Canada v Qatar 🇶🇦

Fri 19 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Canada ★ model's pick

1.26

Market 71% Model 78%

+6.6% edge

Draw

4.90

Market 18% Model 15%

-3.0%

Qatar

8.50

Market 11% Model 7%

-3.6%

🇨🇴 Colombia v Portugal 🇵🇹

Sun 28 Jun · 09:30 UTC

Colombia value

3.55

Market 27% Model 33%

+6.4% edge

Draw

3.30

Market 29% Model 31%

+1.9% edge

Portugal ★ model's pick

2.14

Market 44% Model 36%

-8.3%

🇫🇷 France v Senegal 🇸🇳

Wed 17 Jun · 05:00 UTC

France ★ model's pick

1.49

Market 65% Model 55%

-9.8%

Draw value

4.40

Market 22% Model 28%

+6.2% edge

Senegal

7.50

Market 13% Model 16%

+3.5% edge

🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador 🇪🇨

Mon 15 Jun · 09:00 UTC

Côte d'Ivoire

3.65

Market 27% Model 22%

-4.6%

Draw

2.82

Market 34% Model 33%

-1.4%

Ecuador ★ model's pick

2.47

Market 39% Model 45%

+6.0% edge

🇧🇷 Brazil v Morocco 🇲🇦

Sun 14 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Brazil ★ model's pick

1.68

Market 58% Model 46%

-11.5%

Draw

3.80

Market 25% Model 31%

+5.5% edge

Morocco value

5.75

Market 17% Model 23%

+6.0% edge

🇳🇴 Norway v Senegal 🇸🇳

Tue 23 Jun · 10:00 UTC

Norway ★ model's pick

2.17

Market 44% Model 38%

-6.6%

Draw value

3.50

Market 28% Model 33%

+5.5% edge

Senegal

3.45

Market 28% Model 29%

+1.1% edge

🇵🇦 Panama v England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Sun 28 Jun · 07:00 UTC

Panama

8.50

Market 11% Model 6%

-4.6%

Draw

5.50

Market 17% Model 16%

-0.8%

England ★ model's pick

1.27

Market 72% Model 78%

+5.4% edge

🇹🇷 Turkey v USA 🇺🇸

Fri 26 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Turkey ★ model's pick

2.40

Market 35% Model 40%

+4.5% edge

Draw value

3.10

Market 27% Model 33%

+5.4% edge

USA

2.25

Market 38% Model 28%

-9.9%

🇿🇦 South Africa v Korea Republic 🇰🇷

Thu 25 Jun · 11:00 UTC

South Africa

3.30

Market 26% Model 20%

-5.9%

Draw

3.05

Market 28% Model 28%

+0.6% edge

Korea Republic ★ model's pick

1.80

Market 47% Model 52%

+5.3% edge

🇵🇦 Panama v Croatia 🇭🇷

Wed 24 Jun · 09:00 UTC

Panama

6.00

Market 15% Model 10%

-5.0%

Draw

4.00

Market 22% Model 22%

-0.2%

Croatia ★ model's pick

1.43

Market 63% Model 68%

+5.2% edge

🇳🇿 New Zealand v Egypt 🇪🇬

Mon 22 Jun · 11:00 UTC

New Zealand

5.20

Market 18% Model 16%

-2.1%

Draw value

3.60

Market 26% Model 32%

+5.2% edge

Egypt ★ model's pick

1.72

Market 55% Model 52%

-3.2%

🇨🇿 Czechia v South Africa 🇿🇦

Fri 19 Jun · 02:00 UTC

Czechia ★ model's pick

2.00

Market 48% Model 53%

+5.1% edge

Draw

3.30

Market 29% Model 29%

-0.3%

South Africa

4.10

Market 23% Model 18%

-4.8%

🇪🇨 Ecuador v Curaçao 🇨🇼

Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 UTC

Ecuador ★ model's pick

1.16

Market 77% Model 82%

+5.1% edge

Draw

6.50

Market 14% Model 12%

-1.5%

Curaçao

10.00

Market 9% Model 5%

-3.6%

🇵🇾 Paraguay v Australia 🇦🇺

Fri 26 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Paraguay ★ model's pick

2.00

Market 43% Model 34%

-9.3%

Draw value

3.05

Market 28% Model 34%

+5.1% edge

Australia

3.10

Market 28% Model 32%

+4.2% edge

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Croatia 🇭🇷

Thu 18 Jun · 06:00 UTC

England ★ model's pick

1.76

Market 55% Model 50%

-5.0%

Draw value

3.84

Market 25% Model 30%

+5.0% edge

Croatia

4.95

Market 20% Model 20%

+0.0% edge

🇫🇷 France v Iraq 🇮🇶

Tue 23 Jun · 07:00 UTC

France ★ model's pick

1.13

Market 84% Model 77%

-7.4%

Draw value

8.50

Market 11% Model 16%

+4.8% edge

Iraq

21.00

Market 5% Model 7%

+2.5% edge

🇭🇹 Haiti v Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Sun 14 Jun · 11:00 UTC

Haiti

6.35

Market 15% Model 11%

-4.4%

Draw

4.45

Market 22% Model 21%

-0.4%

Scotland ★ model's pick

1.54

Market 63% Model 68%

+4.8% edge

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland v Morocco 🇲🇦

Sat 20 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Scotland

3.65

Market 25% Model 17%

-7.3%

Draw

3.15

Market 28% Model 31%

+2.6% edge

Morocco ★ model's pick

1.90

Market 47% Model 52%

+4.7% edge

🇳🇱 Netherlands v Japan 🇯🇵

Mon 15 Jun · 06:00 UTC

Netherlands ★ model's pick

1.99

Market 49% Model 41%

-8.0%

Draw value

3.68

Market 26% Model 31%

+4.5% edge

Japan

3.88

Market 25% Model 28%

+3.5% edge

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland v Brazil 🇧🇷

Thu 25 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Scotland

6.50

Market 15% Model 10%

-4.9%

Draw

4.70

Market 20% Model 21%

+0.8% edge

Brazil ★ model's pick

1.45

Market 65% Model 69%

+4.1% edge

🇳🇱 Netherlands v Sweden 🇸🇪

Sun 21 Jun · 03:00 UTC

Netherlands ★ model's pick

1.65

Market 58% Model 62%

+4.0% edge

Draw

3.95

Market 24% Model 23%

-1.1%

Sweden

5.30

Market 18% Model 15%

-2.9%

🇲🇽 Mexico v Korea Republic 🇰🇷

Fri 19 Jun · 11:00 UTC

Mexico ★ model's pick

1.80

Market 53% Model 57%

+3.8% edge

Draw

3.50

Market 27% Model 26%

-1.2%

Korea Republic

4.80

Market 20% Model 17%

-2.6%

🇨🇻 Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

Sat 27 Jun · 10:00 UTC

Cape Verde

2.55

Market 36% Model 31%

-5.6%

Draw value

3.10

Market 30% Model 33%

+3.6% edge

Saudi Arabia ★ model's pick

2.70

Market 34% Model 36%

+2.0% edge

🇨🇭 Switzerland v Canada 🇨🇦

Thu 25 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Switzerland ★ model's pick

2.05

Market 45% Model 48%

+3.4% edge

Draw

3.20

Market 29% Model 30%

+0.8% edge

Canada

3.50

Market 26% Model 22%

-4.2%

🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay 🇵🇾

Sat 13 Jun · 11:00 UTC

USA ★ model's pick

2.01

Market 48% Model 43%

-4.8%

Draw

3.52

Market 28% Model 29%

+1.4% edge

Paraguay value

4.00

Market 24% Model 28%

+3.3% edge

🇯🇴 Jordan v Argentina 🇦🇷

Sun 28 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Jordan

14.00

Market 7% Model 5%

-1.7%

Draw

6.20

Market 15% Model 13%

-1.6%

Argentina ★ model's pick

1.17

Market 79% Model 82%

+3.3% edge

🇪🇸 Spain v Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

Mon 22 Jun · 02:00 UTC

Spain ★ model's pick

1.09

Market 88% Model 83%

-5.1%

Draw value

10.60

Market 9% Model 12%

+3.3% edge

Saudi Arabia

30.00

Market 3% Model 5%

+1.8% edge

🇵🇹 Portugal v DR Congo 🇨🇩

Thu 18 Jun · 03:00 UTC

Portugal ★ model's pick

1.27

Market 75% Model 71%

-4.6%

Draw value

5.80

Market 17% Model 20%

+3.1% edge

DR Congo

12.00

Market 8% Model 10%

+1.5% edge

🇹🇳 Tunisia v Netherlands 🇳🇱

Fri 26 Jun · 09:00 UTC

Tunisia

5.00

Market 17% Model 13%

-3.5%

Draw

3.70

Market 23% Model 23%

+0.4% edge

Netherlands ★ model's pick

1.39

Market 60% Model 64%

+3.1% edge

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 🇺🇾

Tue 16 Jun · 08:00 UTC

Saudi Arabia

8.40

Market 12% Model 11%

-0.5%

Draw value

4.55

Market 21% Model 24%

+3.0% edge

Uruguay ★ model's pick

1.44

Market 67% Model 65%

-2.6%

🇹🇷 Turkey v Paraguay 🇵🇾

Sat 20 Jun · 13:00 UTC

Turkey ★ model's pick

2.25

Market 43% Model 38%

-5.3%

Draw value

3.30

Market 29% Model 32%

+3.0% edge

Paraguay

3.50

Market 28% Model 30%

+2.3% edge

🇨🇿 Czechia v Mexico 🇲🇽

Thu 25 Jun · 11:00 UTC

Czechia

3.70

Market 23% Model 25%

+2.7% edge

Draw value

3.15

Market 27% Model 30%

+3.0% edge

Mexico ★ model's pick

1.66

Market 51% Model 45%

-5.6%

🇵🇹 Portugal v Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

Wed 24 Jun · 03:00 UTC

Portugal ★ model's pick

1.21

Market 74% Model 71%

-2.3%

Draw value

5.60

Market 16% Model 19%

+2.9% edge

Uzbekistan

8.50

Market 10% Model 10%

-0.7%

🇳🇿 New Zealand v Belgium 🇧🇪

Sat 27 Jun · 13:00 UTC

New Zealand

10.02

Market 10% Model 6%

-3.1%

Draw

5.58

Market 17% Model 17%

+0.2% edge

Belgium ★ model's pick

1.30

Market 73% Model 76%

+2.9% edge

🇳🇴 Norway v France 🇫🇷

Sat 27 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Norway

4.39

Market 21% Model 21%

-0.9%

Draw value

3.66

Market 26% Model 29%

+2.8% edge

France ★ model's pick

1.78

Market 53% Model 51%

-2.0%

🇸🇪 Sweden v Tunisia 🇹🇳

Mon 15 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Sweden ★ model's pick

1.93

Market 50% Model 45%

-5.2%

Draw

3.52

Market 28% Model 30%

+2.5% edge

Tunisia value

4.35

Market 22% Model 25%

+2.7% edge

🇺🇾 Uruguay v Spain 🇪🇸

Sat 27 Jun · 10:00 UTC

Uruguay

5.30

Market 17% Model 19%

+1.9% edge

Draw value

3.80

Market 24% Model 27%

+2.6% edge

Spain ★ model's pick

1.57

Market 59% Model 54%

-4.5%

🇲🇽 Mexico v South Africa 🇿🇦

Fri 12 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Mexico ★ model's pick

1.43

Market 68% Model 70%

+2.5% edge

Draw

4.50

Market 22% Model 20%

-1.1%

South Africa

9.10

Market 11% Model 9%

-1.4%

🇩🇿 Algeria v Austria 🇦🇹

Sun 28 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Algeria value

2.90

Market 29% Model 31%

+2.5% edge

Draw

2.90

Market 29% Model 31%

+1.9% edge

Austria ★ model's pick

2.00

Market 42% Model 38%

-4.4%

🇨🇼 Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮

Fri 26 Jun · 06:00 UTC

Curaçao

8.00

Market 11% Model 8%

-2.8%

Draw value

5.00

Market 17% Model 19%

+2.4% edge

Côte d'Ivoire ★ model's pick

1.16

Market 73% Model 73%

+0.3% edge

🇸🇳 Senegal v Iraq 🇮🇶

Sat 27 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Senegal ★ model's pick

1.53

Market 63% Model 62%

-1.5%

Draw value

4.31

Market 23% Model 25%

+2.1% edge

Iraq

6.94

Market 14% Model 13%

-0.6%

🇩🇪 Germany v Curaçao 🇨🇼

Mon 15 Jun · 03:00 UTC

Germany ★ model's pick

1.05

Market 92% Model 88%

-4.0%

Draw

16.50

Market 6% Model 8%

+1.9% edge

Curaçao value

56.00

Market 2% Model 4%

+2.1% edge

🇦🇷 Argentina v Algeria 🇩🇿

Wed 17 Jun · 11:00 UTC

Argentina ★ model's pick

1.42

Market 68% Model 70%

+2.1% edge

Draw

4.55

Market 21% Model 20%

-1.1%

Algeria

9.30

Market 10% Model 9%

-0.9%

🇦🇹 Austria v Jordan 🇯🇴

Wed 17 Jun · 14:00 UTC

Austria ★ model's pick

1.30

Market 74% Model 70%

-4.1%

Draw

5.80

Market 17% Model 19%

+2.0% edge

Jordan value

10.00

Market 10% Model 12%

+2.1% edge

🇧🇪 Belgium v Egypt 🇪🇬

Tue 16 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Belgium ★ model's pick

1.69

Market 57% Model 59%

+2.1% edge

Draw

3.90

Market 25% Model 25%

+0.4% edge

Egypt

5.45

Market 18% Model 15%

-2.4%

🇯🇴 Jordan v Algeria 🇩🇿

Tue 23 Jun · 13:00 UTC

Jordan

6.40

Market 15% Model 12%

-3.2%

Draw value

4.25

Market 23% Model 25%

+1.8% edge

Algeria ★ model's pick

1.55

Market 62% Model 64%

+1.4% edge

🇪🇸 Spain v Cape Verde 🇨🇻

Tue 16 Jun · 02:00 UTC

Spain ★ model's pick

1.11

Market 88% Model 85%

-2.7%

Draw value

11.00

Market 9% Model 11%

+1.8% edge

Cape Verde

27.00

Market 4% Model 4%

+0.9% edge

🇹🇳 Tunisia v Japan 🇯🇵

Sun 21 Jun · 14:00 UTC

Tunisia

5.10

Market 19% Model 16%

-2.5%

Draw value

3.60

Market 26% Model 28%

+1.6% edge

Japan ★ model's pick

1.74

Market 55% Model 56%

+0.9% edge

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan v Colombia 🇨🇴

Thu 18 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Uzbekistan

8.90

Market 11% Model 11%

-0.2%

Draw value

4.55

Market 21% Model 23%

+1.4% edge

Colombia ★ model's pick

1.43

Market 68% Model 67%

-1.2%

🇩🇪 Germany v Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮

Sun 21 Jun · 06:00 UTC

Germany ★ model's pick

1.57

Market 60% Model 61%

+0.2% edge

Draw value

4.10

Market 23% Model 24%

+1.3% edge

Côte d'Ivoire

5.80

Market 16% Model 15%

-1.6%

🇧🇷 Brazil v Haiti 🇭🇹

Sat 20 Jun · 11:00 UTC

Brazil ★ model's pick

1.06

Market 90% Model 88%

-1.6%

Draw

13.00

Market 7% Model 8%

+0.4% edge

Haiti value

35.00

Market 3% Model 4%

+1.2% edge

🇰🇷 Korea Republic v Czechia 🇨🇿

Fri 12 Jun · 12:00 UTC

Korea Republic ★ model's pick

2.67

Market 36% Model 37%

+0.6% edge

Draw value

3.16

Market 31% Model 32%

+1.0% edge

Czechia

2.93

Market 33% Model 31%

-1.6%

🇶🇦 Qatar v Switzerland 🇨🇭

Sun 14 Jun · 05:00 UTC

Qatar

14.00

Market 7% Model 7%

-0.1%

Draw

6.25

Market 15% Model 15%

-0.6%

Switzerland ★ model's pick

1.23

Market 78% Model 79%

+0.7% edge